🔗 Share this article From Reluctant Respect to Disquiet: Russia Weighs Up the Fall of Maduro. A shock assault against the capital city in the dead of night, ending with the seizure of the nation's leader. By the next morning, the intervening power declares its intention to govern indefinitely. That is precisely how Russia's president imagined his large-scale offensive of Ukraine playing out in February 2022. Instead, it was the former US president who executed it in Venezuela, in a operation labeled illegal internationally, spiriting away the Kremlin's historic ally Nicolás Maduro, who is set to be tried in New York. Official Outrage and Private Thoughts Officially, Russian officials have expressed fury, condemning the attack as a blatant breach of international law and a dangerous precedent. But behind the official statements, there is a feeling of grudging respect – and even jealousy – at the effectiveness of a coup that Moscow itself once planned, but could not carry out due to a series of intelligence blunders and stiff Ukrainian opposition. “The mission was executed competently,” wrote the Kremlin-aligned online channel a popular military blog. “Most likely, this is exactly how our 'special military operation' was supposed to proceed: fast, decisive and decisive. It’s hard to believe [Valery] Gerasimov planned to be fighting for four years.” These observations have fed a atmosphere of introspection among pro-war voices, with some publicly wondering how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine turned into a protracted and deadly conflict. Olga Uskova, said she felt “shame” on behalf of her country given how brazen the US intervention seemed. “Within 24 hours, Trump arrested Maduro and seemingly wrapped up his own 'military mission,’” she wrote. A Network Unravels For over twenty years, Venezuela sought to cultivate a network of partners opposed to Washington – from Russia and China to Cuba and Iran – hoping to helping to shape a alternative bloc capable of standing up to Washington. However, even with Russia's foreign minister vowing backing for the Caracas government as recently as late December, few serious analysts ever expected Moscow would intervene meaningfully. Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, seen other important partners lose influence or weaken sharply – from Syria's leader to an increasingly weakened Iran – laying bare the limits of the Kremlin's reach. “For Russia, the circumstances are profoundly awkward,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a close partner and ideological ally, and the two leaders have longstanding ties, leaving Moscow with no option but to voice condemnation. Yet providing any real assistance to a country so far away is simply not feasible – for practical and operational reasons.” The Ukraine Priority Analysts point to a more practical calculation. Putin's priority, experts note, is Ukraine – and keeping a good relationship with Trump on that issue greatly exceeds the destiny of Caracas. “The Russian and American leaders are currently focused on a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a much larger strategic game with a critical partner over what it sees as a lesser priority,” the analyst concluded. Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks Nevertheless, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a pro-American administration takes power in Caracas, US defense specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including advanced Russian-made systems. This arsenal encompasses S-300VM air-defence systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025. Moscow has also provided billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered. A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is oil: American control over Venezuela's enormous oilfields could depress international oil prices, threatening one of Russia's most important sources of income. “If our American 'partners' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.” A Bleak Silver Lining? Still, some in Moscow see room for a grim silver lining. The US seizure of Maduro, they argue, could deal a final blow to the post-war global system and usher in a more openly power-based world order – one where power, rather than law, shapes outcomes. “The US administration is ruthless and pragmatic in advancing its national interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev with endorsement. “Ousting Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The principle of might makes right is evidently more powerful than ordinary justice.”
A shock assault against the capital city in the dead of night, ending with the seizure of the nation's leader. By the next morning, the intervening power declares its intention to govern indefinitely. That is precisely how Russia's president imagined his large-scale offensive of Ukraine playing out in February 2022. Instead, it was the former US president who executed it in Venezuela, in a operation labeled illegal internationally, spiriting away the Kremlin's historic ally Nicolás Maduro, who is set to be tried in New York. Official Outrage and Private Thoughts Officially, Russian officials have expressed fury, condemning the attack as a blatant breach of international law and a dangerous precedent. But behind the official statements, there is a feeling of grudging respect – and even jealousy – at the effectiveness of a coup that Moscow itself once planned, but could not carry out due to a series of intelligence blunders and stiff Ukrainian opposition. “The mission was executed competently,” wrote the Kremlin-aligned online channel a popular military blog. “Most likely, this is exactly how our 'special military operation' was supposed to proceed: fast, decisive and decisive. It’s hard to believe [Valery] Gerasimov planned to be fighting for four years.” These observations have fed a atmosphere of introspection among pro-war voices, with some publicly wondering how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine turned into a protracted and deadly conflict. Olga Uskova, said she felt “shame” on behalf of her country given how brazen the US intervention seemed. “Within 24 hours, Trump arrested Maduro and seemingly wrapped up his own 'military mission,’” she wrote. A Network Unravels For over twenty years, Venezuela sought to cultivate a network of partners opposed to Washington – from Russia and China to Cuba and Iran – hoping to helping to shape a alternative bloc capable of standing up to Washington. However, even with Russia's foreign minister vowing backing for the Caracas government as recently as late December, few serious analysts ever expected Moscow would intervene meaningfully. Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, seen other important partners lose influence or weaken sharply – from Syria's leader to an increasingly weakened Iran – laying bare the limits of the Kremlin's reach. “For Russia, the circumstances are profoundly awkward,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a close partner and ideological ally, and the two leaders have longstanding ties, leaving Moscow with no option but to voice condemnation. Yet providing any real assistance to a country so far away is simply not feasible – for practical and operational reasons.” The Ukraine Priority Analysts point to a more practical calculation. Putin's priority, experts note, is Ukraine – and keeping a good relationship with Trump on that issue greatly exceeds the destiny of Caracas. “The Russian and American leaders are currently focused on a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a much larger strategic game with a critical partner over what it sees as a lesser priority,” the analyst concluded. Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks Nevertheless, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a pro-American administration takes power in Caracas, US defense specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including advanced Russian-made systems. This arsenal encompasses S-300VM air-defence systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025. Moscow has also provided billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered. A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is oil: American control over Venezuela's enormous oilfields could depress international oil prices, threatening one of Russia's most important sources of income. “If our American 'partners' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.” A Bleak Silver Lining? Still, some in Moscow see room for a grim silver lining. The US seizure of Maduro, they argue, could deal a final blow to the post-war global system and usher in a more openly power-based world order – one where power, rather than law, shapes outcomes. “The US administration is ruthless and pragmatic in advancing its national interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev with endorsement. “Ousting Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The principle of might makes right is evidently more powerful than ordinary justice.”