🔗 Share this article

Only two days prior to the New York mayoral election, Michael Lange made a significant electoral prediction – not just who would win citywide, and precinct by precinct. The analyst, a political analyst born and raised in the city, has spent over a decade in left-leaning activism and has become something of a well-known figure this year for his deep dives into municipal statistics and voter surveys.

He released his extremely precise forecast map – which correctly forecast that Zohran Mamdani would win although missing Andrew Cuomo’s strong performance – on his Substack, the Narrative War. Lange has a flair for clever terms. He highlighted, for instance, the divide between the progressive stronghold, stretching from Park Slope to another area to a third locale, where he predicted (accurately) that Mamdani would triumph by huge margins, and the “capitalist corridor” on affluent parts of Manhattan. There, “the Free Press and Wall Street Journal outrank the New York Times” in readership and most voters favored the independent, campaigning as a conservative-courting independent.

Election Night Trends and Surprises

What was your election night?

I had to do that since they were adding around 200,000 ballots into the system every few minutes! I was actually somewhat anxious at the beginning: Mamdani was ahead the initial ballots by 12 points, but there were two big batches of votes added later and his lead went from 12% to 8%. I was worried.

Understand, it was possible where election day went somewhat badly for Mamdani, in which the opponent would have basically doubling his votes from the Democratic primary. But the winner added 500,000 votes to his initial base, and that’s a huge reason why he won. He campaigned and massively expanded his base from the first round.

Coalition Building

How did the mayor-elect get additional support from?

He assembled the coalition that the left long aimed for: it’s multiracial, youthful, tenants and it’s people facing cost pressures. He gained significantly with Black and Hispanic voters, working- and middle-class voters, relative to the primary. Additionally he further maximized his core of left-leaning activists, youthful radicals, and immigrant groups. Victory required without expanding his appeal.

He created the coalition that progressives long aimed for: multiracial, youthful, renters and people squeezed by affordability

Additionally, there were some supporters of both candidates – is this significant?

It’s definitely a real thing, limited to Hispanic laborers, south Asians and Islamic voters. Electors in ethnic enclaves that supported Trump last year went for the progressive this year. But I wouldn’t say he was winning over Caucasian laborers and Maga voters.

Voter Participation and Impact

One of the big stories of the night was the sky-high turnout. Who benefited?

Each candidate. Participation was much greater than anticipated. I thought it could exceed two million, but it’s closer to 2.3M – that is a huge number of participants. Existed a substantial anti-Mamdani block, who were motivated, but his supporters was equally driven, and that was enough to secure victory.

You forecasted he’d get over half the ballots. Is he likely for that?

Currently it appears he’s favored to surpass 50%. He’s at just over 50% but there’s still around 200,000 votes left to report at that time. So it’s not it’s definitive, but I believe it’s likely, and I wish he does so then none can claim the Republican was a disruptor.

GOP Decline

The GOP candidate, the conservative contender, was another surprise. His vote plummeted.

He lost any district in any area. Not even one neighborhood in Staten Island, which is like an highly conservative neighborhood. That truly was unexpected. The independent held very white areas, affluent zones and devout communities, and then added many conservatives on the island with a high participation. I think there was a lot of tactical voting by the Republicans. This happened prior to Trump endorsed for Cuomo, but it assisted. It might have changed the outcome unless the winning alliance hadn’t grown.

Progressive Strongholds

Regarding your often-discussed left-wing base – did backing for Mamdani dominant in those parts of Brooklyn and Queens?

In my view there was a little dilution of the commie corridor in some areas like Astoria or Greenpoint that have more older white ethnic folks. In Astoria, for example, the Greek landlords and residents all went for Cuomo. So there existed a little resistance. But no, largely the leftist base is another huge reason why Zohran won – he scored between 77% and 83% in specific neighborhoods.

Community Support

Prior to the election there was coverage on whether Mamdani was making inroads with the community. Any indication that he did?

There are neighborhoods with many non-religious and left-inclined voters – like Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he performed strongly. However in the affluent districts like the Upper East Side, his Middle East stance definitely mattered in those places. Similarly in the more middle-class Jewish areas like Queens neighborhoods, or Bronx areas – they all leaned the independent. Plus, you have Jewish immigrants from the former Soviet Union in the borough, they were strongly Cuomo. So I don’t know if existed major surprises on this one, but he did hold left-leaning areas and including sections of the another locale with large leads.

Long-Term Significance

Did Mamdani redefine what New York means politically? Will the progressive base become a launch pad for leftwing candidates?

Absolutely, it’s not accidental that key political leaders from the left come from a few areas in the boroughs. I believe that there will be additional examples – candidates will emerge from these neighborhoods to be elevated nationally.

However I believe that each urban center in America can have similar progressive hubs. Urban places are the centers of progressive influence in America – because they’re young, people rent and they represent locales where individuals struggle by the disparities we face.